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Chinese visitors are still Thailand's biggest source market this year, with 4.14 million arrivals as of 17 October. A new Chinese embassy travel alert about job scams is not expected to change that much. Thai tourism bodies say the alert targets high-profile people, especially in entertainment, rather than ordinary tourists. Arrivals are recovering but remain well below 2019 and 2024 levels, mainly because flight capacity is limited.
What the alert is about
China's embassy in Thailand issued another travel alert last week, this time about job scams. It is aimed at high-profile people, especially those in entertainment, such as influencers, artists and celebrities. These people may be vulnerable to high-paying job offers that turn out to be scams.
The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) and the Association of Thai Travel Agents (Atta) both say the alert is not aimed at ordinary tourists. They expect limited impact on arrivals.
Adith Chairattananon, honorary secretary-general of Atta, says repeated alerts matter less now because tourists have become more familiar with these issues.
Why scams have been a concern
Last year, Chinese visitors fell 33.5% to 4.47 million. The article attributes this mostly to lost tourist confidence after scam networks targeted Chinese nationals. Those networks used Thailand as a transit hub to reach compounds in neighbouring countries.
The numbers so far this year
As of 17 October, Chinese arrivals totalled 4.14 million, and China remains the top source market. The Chinese market is still growing about 14% year on year.
| Rank | Source market | Arrivals (as of 17 Oct) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | China | 4.14 million |
| 2 | Malaysia | 3.1 million |
| 3 | India | 1.83 million |
Flight capacity is the limit
Seat capacity on China-Thailand routes is roughly 2.1 million for the last three months of the year. TAT says this could add at least 1 million Chinese visitors in that period.
Even so, total seat capacity from China is only 8.03 million this year. For comparison:
| Year | Seats from China | Chinese visitors to Thailand |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 (record) | 13 million | Nearly 11 million |
| 2024 | 8.7 million | 6.7 million |
| This year | 8.03 million | Not yet final |
Forecasts
During the Middle East war earlier this year, Atta forecast 5.5 to 6 million Chinese visitors. It later cut that to 5 to 5.5 million after recent floods in many parts of Thailand, and that is its current forecast.
Kittipong Prapatong, TAT's deputy governor for international marketing in Asia and South Pacific, says 3 million Chinese visitors in the fourth quarter is out of reach. He also calls a 7 million total for the year a far-fetched goal.
Sentiment and year-end events
Negative international sentiment about the flooding has eased, including in China. The article credits Thailand's successful hosting of the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings last week.
TAT plans year-end activities to sustain demand from mainland China:
- Loy Krathong
- The Vijit Chao Phraya illumination
- Music festivals including Tomorrowland and Wonderfruit
- New Year countdown events
What this means for travellers
- Ordinary Chinese tourists are not the target of the alert, so travel to Thailand is not expected to drop sharply.
- Limited flight capacity is the main constraint on Chinese arrivals.
- Chinese demand looks set to stay moderate through the high season. The article implies no big surge for the fourth quarter.
- Flood-related negative sentiment is easing, and the festival season is the main draw.
- Malaysia and India are the next-largest sources of visitors this year.
- The article gives no regional breakdown for the south or Krabi, so it says nothing specific about Koh Lanta.
Information sourced from Bangkok Post.